Veranstaltungen

The Austrian Institute for International Affairs
and the Austrian Political Science Association (OeGPW)

in cooperation with

Department of Development Studies, University of Vienna
and supported by
Austrian-American Educational Commission (AAEC)

cordially invite you to
Talk and Discussion

The Early Warning of Violent Conflict:

Can It Be Done? How? What Uses?


J. Craig Jenkins,
Dept. of Sociology, Ohio State University
Currently, Visiting Professor, Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO)

Virtually all governments and a growing range of IGOs and INGOs engage in early warning research. How is this done? Can it be made more effective and widely available? This talk outlines two approaches to conflict early warning: (1) a variable approach that identifies controllable and situational factors; and (2) a process-tracing approach that attempts to identify potential crises and turning points. Drawing on the first, we outline the idea of conflict carrying capacity as a formal tool for early warning research and summarize some empirical tests. Yet such formal models lack the detailed knowledge of specific actors, contexts and conflicting agendas that are needed to make effective interventions, precisely the strong suit of a process-tracing approach. After outlining what is entailed by process- tracing, we discuss the possibilities for bringing these approaches together and lodging them in publicly accessible forums.

WEDNESDAY, December 1, 2010
19:00 – 21:00 hrs.
Department of Development Studies, University of Vienna, Lecture Room 1
1090 Vienna, Sensengasse 3 / 1, Ground Floor

Registration: Tel. 01-581 11 06, email: info@oiip.at

Invitation to the lecture (PDF)

The Austrian Institute for International Affairs
and the Austrian Political Science Association (OeGPW)

in cooperation with
Department of Political Science, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Vienna
and supported by
Austrian-American Educational Commission (AAEC)

cordially invite you to the
Lecture and Discussion
Globalization and Contentious Politics
by
Professor Craig J. Jenkins (Ohio State University, Mershon Center for International
Security Studies, currently Visiting Professor at PRIO in Norway)

Welcome:
Stefan Khittel (Affiliated Researcher oiip)

Introductory remarks and chair:
Professor Ulrich Brand (University of Vienna)

Thursday, December 2, 2010
14:00 – 16:00 hrs.
Konferenzraum A 222 im IPW, Universitätsstr. 7, 2. Stock

Registration: Tel. 01-581 11 06, email: info@oiip.at

Invitation to the lecture (PDF)